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Special Report




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                                                                                                                                             AVAILABLE IN GRADE : IP/BP/USP/EP/FCC
                                                                                                                        • COPPER SULPHATE ANHYDROUS

                                                                                                                        • SODIUM DIHYDROGEN ORTHOPHOSPHATE DIHYDRATE

                                                                                                                        • DI-SODIUM HYDROGEN ORTHO PHOSPHATE ANHYDROUS

                                                                                                                        • DI-SODIUM HYDROGEN ORTHO PHOSPHATE DIHYDRATE

                                                                                                                              • TRI-SODIUM PHOSPHATE DODECAHYDRATE

                                                  Fig. 5: Price Trend.                                                  • POTASSIUM PHOSPHATE MONOBASIC
       Source: AGMARKNET, Chini mandi, Ind-Ra
       rise further to 15-17-bnl by ESY26-27.  requirement. Furthermore, notwithstanding  the restrictions imposed on cane juice and
       However, challenges in the form of ade-  some decline, the gross sugar production  B-heavy molasses in ESY24, ethanol pro-  • POTASSIUM PHOSPHATE DIBASIC
       quate feedstock availability and vehicle  is estimated to come in at 33-33.5-mt for  duction from C-heavy molasses (CHM)
       compatibility beyond  15%  blending,  SS25, which is higher than the domestic  was given an incentive of Rs. 6.87 per litre,   • SODIUM CARBONATE ANHYDROUS /MONO
       given  the  reduction  in  fuel  effi ciency,  consumption of 28-29-mt. As a result, Ind-  highest  increase  in  the  past  fi ve  years
       need to be addressed. The Biofuel Policy  Ra believes that the restrictions on the  to incentivise supply. Consequently, the   • MANGANESE SULPHATE
       2018 also mandates 5% ethanol blend-  diversion of sugar to ethanol could be eased in  supply from CHM increased substantially
       ing in diesel by 2030, which if success-  ESY25. Sugar diversion hit a high of 3.8-mt  to 390-mnl (million litres) in 8MESY24   • MANGANESE CHLORIDE
       ful could aid ethanol demand growth.  in SS23 and given the continued growth of  (ESY23: 65-mnl). Similarly, the price of
       However, according to the   “Ind-Ra believes that grains will drive the ethanol production growth over   maize-based  etha-  • MAGNESIUM SULPHATE ANHYDROUS
       government, it is at an ex-                                                         nol was also given
       perimental stage with ini-                   the medium term”                       an incentive where                 • POTASSIUM NITRATE
       tial tests showing formation of deposits  around 2% in sugar consumption and the  it was increased by Rs. 5.8 per litre to
       in fuel tanks, among other implications.  government’s  prioritisation of  food  secu-  Rs. 71.9 per litre for ESY24, to improve pro-  • POTASSIUM CHLORIDE
                                         rity, the potential for a sustainable increase   fi tability and incentivise production. Ethanol
       Restrictions on use of sugarcane likely to   in diversion is limited. Therefore, Ind-Ra   price movements have largely moved in         • POTASSIUM BROMIDE
       be eased in ESY25, but grain-based dis-  believes that grains will drive the ethanol   tandem with the fair and remunerative
       tilleries to lead near-to-medium growth  production growth over the medium term.   prices of cane, which is also fi xed by the
          Given  the  benefi t  of  integration  and   While initially relatively slow to take off,                                        IN BULK LR / AR GRADE CHEMICALS
       ready availability of feedstock, sugar-  grain-based ethanol production capacities   government, leading to inherent stability
       cane-based ethanol has driven the supply   grew 30% yoy in ESY23 and could rise   in  the  profi tability.  However,  while  the
       growth witnessed in the past three to four  further to 6.5-7.5-bnl by ESY26-27, poten-  prices of grain-based ethanol are deter-  POTASSIUM DICHROMATE              STARCH (POTATO)  SOLUBLE
       years. However, the restrictions on the  tially contributing 60% of the total ethanol   mined by the oil manufacturing compa-  POTASSIUM CHROMATE                  BARIUM BROMIDE
       use of cane juice and B-heavy molasses  demand for fuel. However, for that to hap-  nies, the input cost is based on the market   SODIUM NITRATE                    ZINC BROMIDE
       resulted in grain-based ethanol supply sur-  pen, the availability of maize has to increase   demand-supply dynamics, making them
       passing sugarcane-based ethanol supply in  by way of an increase in the domestic out-  inherently volatile. With the stoppage of   BISMUTH NITRATE /SUBNITRATE       STRONTIUM BROMIDE
       7MESY24. Maize was the key contri-  put and imports, for which the industry has   supply of rice by Food Corporation of   CADMIUM NITRATE /SULPHATE                  CADMIUM BROMIDE /OXIDE
       butor to the 220%yoy jump in grain-based  made a representation for the removal of   India to ethanol units and a sharp increase
       ethanol supply to 1.8-bnl in 7MESY24   custom duty.                in the prices of other feedstocks such as               QUALIKEMS LIFESCIENCES PVT. LTD.
       (7MESY23: 0.5-bnl), contributing around                            broken rice and maize, the profi tability of
       60% to the total grain-based supply.  Profi tability from grain-based ethanol   grain-based ethanol had been hit in FY23-     H.O & WORKS: Plot No.68-69, G.I.D.C Industrial Estate, Nandesari,
                                         relatively low and volatile      FY24. While the increase in prices is likely                                Vadodara - 391340 (GUJARAT).
          Given the higher than initial estimated   The government has continuously  to aid profi tability of grain-based ethanol
       production of sugar, India is likely to end  increased ethanol prices from all feed-  in FY25, profi tability would remain sus-  Telefax : + 91-265-2841531,32,34,35 • Mobile: +91-92275 36999
       the season with a stock of 8.5-9-mt, signifi -  stocks between ESY17-ESY23 to sup-  ceptible  to  fl uctuations  in  raw  material   Email: salesindia@qualikems.com  &  Info@qualikems.com
       cantly higher than the normative carryover  port the ethanol blending program. With  prices based on the adequacy of supply.               Web : www.qualikems.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    KNS ADI
       180                                                                Chemical Weekly  September 24, 2024


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