Page 176 - CW E-Magazine (24-9-2024)

Special Report

Bio/Pharma companies ride the strength of the

obesity drug market

ovo Nordisk and Lilly are lead- Victoza (liraglutide). Combined, these
ing the charge in the high- drug posted 2023 sales of DKK 123.13-bn PATRICIA VAN ARNUM
Ngrowth obesity drug market ($17.7-bn), a 48% gain over 2022, as Editorial Director, DCAT
with their blockbuster drugs recording measured in Danish kroner, and by 52% (semaglutide and cagrilintide) (now in
multi-billion sales growth in the fi rst at constant exchange rates. Ozempic late-stage development), and Rybelsus –
half of 2024, a trajectory expected to accounted for the lion’s share of these which collectively are forecast to
continue for the full year 2024. What sales with 2023 sales of DKK 95.72-bn capture 83% of the GLP-1 agonist
are leading drug candidates from other ($13.8-bn), and Rybelsus accounted for market by 2029. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro is
bio/pharma majors? sales of DKK 18.75-bn ($2.7-bn). expected to lead in sales, with projected
2029 sales of $33.4-bn, according to
The battle of the blockbusters Combined 2023 sales of two obesity- estimates by GlobalData. With a large
Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) care GLP-1 products by Novo Nordisk, portfolio of products of GLP-1 drugs,
agonists, which can be used to treat Wegovy (semaglutide) and Saxenda Novo Nordisk is expected to capture
Type 2 diabetes and obesity, are a ris- (liraglutide), were DKK 41.63-bn 55% of the GLP-1 market in 2029.
ing class of blockbuster drugs (defi ned ($6.0-bn). Wegovy has the same active
as drugs with sales of $1-bn or more). ingredient, semaglutide, as Ozempic Longer-term growth projections
GLP-1 agonists work by promoting and Rybelsus, and Saxenda, the same in seven major markets (US, France,
insulin secretion, which helps maintain active ingredient as Victoza. Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan)
blood sugar levels in patients with Type are even stronger. With the obesity and
2 diabetes. This class of drugs also may In the fi rst-half of 2024, that posi- Type 2 diabetes markets growing at
promote weight loss by reducing appe- tive sales growth trajectory has con- strong rates, the GLP-1 receptor ago-
tite and delay gastric emptying, thereby tinued. Sales within Novo Nordisk’s nists market is also growing. GLP-1
leading to reduced food intake. diabetes and obesity care market in- receptor agonist sales for the Type 2
creased by 26% in Danish kroner to diabetes and obesity markets are forecast
Leading the charge in the GLP-1 DKK 125.0-bn ($18.3-bn) (27% at con- to reach over $125-bn in these seven
market are Eli Lilly and Company stant exchange rates), mainly driven by major markets in 2033, according to
and Novo Nordisk, each with block- GLP-1 diabetes sales growth of 32% GlobalData (estimates as reported in
busters in this drug class. Sales of in Danish kroner (32% at constant ex- May 2024).
Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide), for change rates) and obesity care growing
treating Type 2 diabetes, reached by 37% in Danish kroner to DKK “There are currently 10 GLP-1
$5.16-bn in 2023 and fi rst-half 2024 24.9-bn ($3.6-bn) (37% at constant receptor agonists approved for Type 2
sales already have reached $4.90-bn. exchange rates). diabetes and three for obesity, but many
Mounjaro was approved in the US for more are expected to reach the mar-
treating Type 2 diabetes in 2022, and Market outlook for GLP-1 drugs, ket in the next fi ve to 10 years,” said
in November 2023, the same active including obesity indications Costanza Alciati, Pharma Analyst at
ingredient, tirzepatide, was approved The GLP-1 agonist market is poised GlobalData, in commenting on the May
in the US for treating chronic weight for strong growth, with a compound 2024 data from the fi rm. “Indeed, there
management under the brand name, annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.2% are 51 products in clinical develop-
Zepbound. Following its approval in from 2023 to 2029, reaching a market ment for obesity and/or Type 2 diabetes,
November 2023, Zepbound has already size of $105-bn in 2029, according which exploit the GLP-1 receptor
achieved blockbuster status with fi rst- to estimates (as of March 6, 2024) by agonist mechanism, often coupled with
half 2024 sales of $1.76-bn. GlobalData, a market research and other actions. At present, Ozempic (We-
business intelligence fi rm. govy for obesity) and Mounjaro domi-
Novo Nordisk has several GLP-1- nate the GLP-1 receptor agonist space.
based products for treating Type 2 dia- It points to fi ve key drugs: Lilly’s But there is an opportunity for new
betes: Ozempic (semaglutide, injection), Mounjaro and four drugs by Novo Nor- players to join the race as the market
Rybelsus (semaglutide, tablets), and disk – Ozempic, Wegovy, CagriSema is vast. Some of the therapies in Phase

176 Chemical Weekly September 24, 2024

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