Page 179 - CW E-Magazine (30-1-2024)

Special Report

Dec’22 Jan’23 Feb’23 Mar’23 Apr’23 May’23 Jun’23 Jul’23 Aug’23 Sep’23 Oct’23 Nov’23
Global
Global Brazil
Canada
Ameri- US
cas Eurozone
France
Germany
Ireland
Europe Italy
Spain
UK
Australia
China
(Mainland)
Asia India
Pacific
Japan
Kazakhstan
Others Russia
Services
Source: S&P Global PMI in association with relevant sponsors

Key Curbing inflation
Improving at a faster rate The world economy will remain
obsessed in 2024 with controlling
Improving at a slower rate
inflation caused by the excesses of
At neutral 50.0 mark the CovID period. Interest rates
are not going to be meddled with
Deteriorating at a slower rate
by most countries including the US,
Deteriorating at a faster rate probably till mid-2024 (May to July)
Chart 1: Country-wise PMI heat map for November 2023 when there will be more clarity on
the way their economies are headed.
Nasdaq gave a return of 46%! The return of 2.75X over the global Many countries will delay the raise of
allocation to US stocks in the MSCI index, followed by minus 0.8X in the interest rate, tempted to suck out some
ACWI Index is 62% in 2023 (up from next decade. He surmises that ‘US growth from the economy because
42% in 2009 at the time of the Global Mega Caps’ theme from 2010-2020, the nominal GDP growth is widely
Credit Crisis), which is not justified has run out of steam, as also the expected to fall a bit in 2024.
on the basis of most economic indi- Dollar Index, and that the ‘Emerging
cators like share of global earnings Markets’ will replace it in the 2020-30 Inflation control will be greatly
(47%), GDP (24%) and number of decade. Given the mega changes aided by containment of energy costs
companies (22%) which would mat- happening in the AI world, the influ- as will economic recovery especially
ter in the long term. Will this domi- ence of the broader US stocks may in Europe be. oil prices may move
nance of US shares continue? Ruchir abate, as the EM will arrive at the in a narrow range, but a drop in the
Sharma of Breakout Capital made a party. 2024-2026 would be an inte- Dollar rate will moderate the effective
strong case backed with statistics to resting period of flux. Would you not price of energy and help oECD coun-
support his hypothesis that every de- build an emerging markets portfolio tries recover. They desperately, want
cade has its favourite theme when the with some Nasdaq stocks thrown in that to happen. The politics of climate
theme provided an average decadal now? change and fossil fuel are joined at

Chemical Weekly January 30, 2024 179

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