Page 154 - CW E-Magazine (3-9-2024)

Hydrocarbons

FORECAST
Natural gas to account for 8.6% of India’s primary

energy mix by 2050: BP Energy Outlook

UK’s oil and gas major BP has able to realise its target to raise the share growth in natural gas demand is the
projected that the share of natural gas in of natural gas in the primary energy industry. Then it’s the power sector, and
India’s primary energy mix will reach mix to 15 percent by the end of the current the third is transport,” he added.
8.6 percent in 2050 from 5 percent in 2022 decade.
under the current trajectory scenario. The regulatory reforms brought
The numbers are even lower than its in by the government have aided in
BP’s Energy Outlook 2024 also last energy outlook report. In the 2023 increasing the consumption of gas,
said that under its net zero scenario, the report, BP had said “the share of natural Mr. Dale noted.
share of natural gas in primary energy gas in total primary energy grows in all
mix of the world’s fourth largest lique- scenarios, increasing from 5 percent in “I think there is scope to grow natu-
fi ed natural gas (LNG) importer will be 2019 to 7-11 percent in 2050, supported ral gas even more in India, particularly
even lower at 5.5 percent by 2050. by industry and heavy road transport in terms of natural gas within industry.
demand.” I think part of that story is continuing
Current trajectory (CT) represents the regulatory reforms that government
the present supply, demand and con- Crude oil exporting bloc OPEC in has already undertaken so far in India.
sumption scenarios in energy, while net its 2023 annual outlook had also pro- I’ve been coming to India for many
zero trajectory (NZ) relates to a scenario jected that India’s share of natural gas years now, and there’s been huge re-
that focuses on decarbonisation. in the energy mix is expected to reach forms in terms of gas regulation that
just 10.6 percent by 2045. are helping to support the growth,” he
Asked about India’s target of said.
achieving a 15 percent share of natural Gas consumption
gas, BP’s Chief Economist Mr. Spencer Mr. Dale emphasised that the share India’s gas consumption has risen
Dale told journalists, “Share of natural of natural gas is expected to grow in from 137-million standard cubic metres
gas increases a little bit, but does not the country’s primary energy mix per day (mscmd) in FY15 to 187-mscmd
get to 15 percent. It goes to 7 percent aided by consumption from the indus- in FY24. It consumed 66.63-billion cubic
or 8 percent. It does not increase signi- try, power generation and transport metres (bcm) natural gas in FY24, com-
fi cantly.” sectors. pared to 59.97-bcm and 64.16-bcm in
FY23 and FY22, respectively. Fertilisers,
This means that the world’s third “In quantitative terms, the single city gas distribution and power are the
largest energy consumer might not be most important sector driving the main consuming sectors.

Independent natural gas transport system operator

likely soon

The oil ministry may soon fl oat a The common carrier capacity of a pipeline customer in the gas marketing
cabinet note on setting up an indepen- gas pipeline, which averages about a business.
dent transport system operator (TSO) quarter of the full capacity, is managed
to manage the common carrier capa- by the company that laid the pipeline To remove this perceived confl ict of
city of natural gas pipelines to give all and now operates it. In most cases, interest, and allow fair, transparent and
gas marketers a level playing fi eld in these pipeline operators such as GAIL non-discriminatory access to the gas
the country, a report in the Economic and GSPC also have gas marketing grid to all gas marketers, the govern-
Times newspaper said quoting unnamed businesses. In this dual role, the oper- ment is planning to set up the TSO,
sources. ator also becomes a competitor for its the report stated.

154 Chemical Weekly September 3, 2024

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